Saturday, June 21, 2008

Best Trade of the Week Video in ES Market

This is the first time I have worked with the recording feature with Camstasia Studio. So your patience is appreciated as I get to understand the software, and get better with bringing the best of my trades to video format.

Thanks again for your patience and understanding, as I learn how to bring my trading into greater focus for your benefit.

Good Trades,

David AKA Tiger

Saturday June 21: Weekly Wrap Up Trading Video

Friday, June 20, 2008

Bonds Head Out Near Week's Best Levels

15:50 ET 10-Yr: +13/32..4.156%.. USD/JPY: 107.2670.. EUR/USD: 1.5621

Bonds Head Out Near Week's Best Levels : The bonds ran-up on the day, with the short end pulling the market along as stocks stumbled and oil barreled back better. The early bid came in on chatter over bond insurer troubles (and rate slashings) and held, with some mid-day pressure on position squaring, bouncing back nicely.

There was nothing on the calendar of note today but the week ahead has a run of potential tape-bombs, with FOMC, $30B shorter duration auctions and assorted data. The oil related meetings in the Mid East over the weekend may offer some headlines, but little of consequence is expected out of the gathering.

Traders have pulled out virtually all expectation of the Fed to pull the trigger on rates, but the market is geared up for toughened up inflation talk. The shorter maturities were able to get in about 23 basis point swings on the week, while the longer end lagged some.

The curve was back and forth all week, heading out steepened with the 2-10-yr yield spread at 128.5. The buck was embattled all day, suffering on rate expectations and got pushed out of the recent range on the euro, which was able to haul its way back through to 1.5650. The yen was able to get back to near 107.00 yen to the buck after a brief stint through 108.00 late yesterday.
Gold was bought most of the week on inflation concern, but went offered mid-session with spot now 901.42 (+2.95).

Crude held a bid on mid-east saber rattling and the sliding dollar, with the Aug contract now 135.15 (+2.55).

The week ahead will be fairly Fed-centric with the FOMC running Tues and Wed, and a high likelihood of assorted ex-Fedsters popping up to offer their rate opinions to the usual market talking heads.

Stock Market Concludes With A Heavy Loss Week

Dow -220.40 at 11842.69, Nasdaq -55.97 at 2406.09, S&P -24.90 at 1317.93

Friday was an options expiration date, making for heavy volume as traders entered the market in droves. However, the session’s tone was pessimistic as concerns surrounding financial and bank stocks bled into other sectors.

Within the financial sector (-2.5%), bond insurers MBIA (MBI 5.59, -0.86) and Ambac (ABK 2.05, +0.02) had their ratings cut by Moody's and were given a negative outlook. Fellow ratings agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor’s already trimmed their ratings on bond insurers.

Matters in the financial sector were made worse as Merrill Lynch reduced its earnings estimates for a host of banks on concerns of credit risk, capital raises, and possible dividend cuts.

Large-cap tech also encountered stiff selling pressure during the session, offsetting yesterday’s advance. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%, hurt by easily recognizable Apple (AAPL 175.27, -5.63), Microsoft (MSFT 28.23, -0.70), and Google (GOOG 546.43, -13.77).

In terms of corporate headlines, Boeing (BA 75.83, -1.12) announced it is closer to delivering its highly anticipated 787 Dreamliner after completing a key task. Shares of BA still traded lower amid the day’s raft of selling.

Ford Motor Company (F 5.88, -0.44) stated it will further cut truck production. The company is shifting focus to match consumers’ appetite for more fuel efficient automobiles amid high fuel costs. Notably, Ford had its outlook lowered by Moody’s to negative from stable, reflecting the challenging environment faced by domestic auto manufacturers. General Motors (GM 13.79, -1.00) was also put on CreditWatch with negative implications. The automobile manufacturers industry finished the session 7.6% lower.

Amid speculation whether Belgian brewer InBev will succeed in its effort to acquire Anheuser-Busch (BUD 60.67, -0.38), the St. Louis-based brewer announced it acquired the remaining 50% of Crown Beers India Ltd. from its partner, Crown International. Additionally, Carlos Fernandez, chairman and CEO of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo, resigned from Anheuser-Busch’s board. Anheuser-Busch has a stake in Grupo Modelo and previously approached the company in regard to expanding its relationship.

Stocks closed the session off their lows, but with significant losses. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.1%. The stock market has lost 5.9% month-to-date, and is down 10.3% year-to-date.

Nasdaq 100 -2.7%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -1.8%. ..Russell 2000 -1.6%.

Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says

By Bei Hu
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may rise to $5,000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $277 billion of assets globally.

``You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $1,000 an ounce, but prices rise to $5,000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,'' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $10 billion of commodity assets.

Investors are turning to gold for protection as two-thirds of the world's population cope with inflation rates that are climbing to more than 10 percent, Wyke said. Cash and inflation- linked bonds are poor substitutes as low interest rates, coupled with surging inflation, erode the real value of assets, he said.

Bullion for immediate delivery was down 0.2 percent at $892.48 an ounce at 9:57 a.m. in Singapore, after gaining 3 percent in the past four days. Wyke didn't give a time frame for his gold prediction.

Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found.

New Fund
Wyke was speaking at a press conference in Hong Kong today to market the Schroder Alternative Solutions Gold and Metals Fund, the first commodity fund authorized for sale to individuals in the city that invests primarily in derivatives, including futures, warrants, swaps and options. Robert Howell and Paula Bujia will manage the fund.

Gold may account for about 40 percent of the fund's assets, based on a ``model'' fund used to simulate returns, said Wyke. The fund would also buy securities linked to metals including aluminum, copper, iron ore, zinc and uranium.

The limited amount of gold available, relative to the size of the global capital markets, means a small shift in investments may lead to significant price changes for the metal, Wyke said. Total gold above ground is worth about $4.8 trillion, compared with global stock and bond markets worth $135.2 trillion.

UBS AG, Hang Seng Bank Ltd., KBC Groep NV and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are among firms that manage commodity funds in the city, according to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Bank of East Asia Ltd. in February started a fund that buys shares of companies that produce materials and energy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at Last Updated: June 19, 2008 04:44 EDT

Friday Day Trading: ZB Bonus Trade

Today in the bond market, we experienced what is called a GAP OPEN. There is two ways to trade a gap. One is to take a trade when the gap is trying to be closed. The other is to take a trade with the intention of the gap not closing, or a continuation gap.

The trade today came at 8:35AM Eastern time, and proceeded without any difficulty reaching target for another profitable trade for the week.

On a side note, I am working on several projects now. One will be available, in the near future, you will find it on the right side of the blog with the Day Trader Box. I will keep you updated on the progress of this program.

Also, I have placed my recommended booklist on this website blog. It is an accumlation of over 25 years of reading. These are books that I recommend and they vary from: trading, investment, fiction, biography, and self-help. You will also find a current news category on the right side. I hope you like the new additions to my blog.

Lastly, if you scroll to the bottom of the page, then you will find my disclaimer to the website, and my trading method. This is pretty standard stuff, but I wanted to cover my bases. I hope that you have a very enjoyable weekend. My plan as time goes on is to make this website blog a one of a kind, unique and enjoyable experience for all that take the time to visit.

Be on the lookout for more changes coming soon!

Good Trades,

David AKA Tiger

P.S. I added a "Calvin and Hobbes" picture. As I was growing up, I always enjoyed the cartoon and it is a reminder of my nickname, "TIGER."

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Futures: The Phantom's Gift

Futures: The Phantom's Gift - by Art Simpson
If you haven't yet read this collection of work, then I would highly recommend placing this on your to do list, in the near future.

David AKA Tiger

Label Post Starter

Thursday Day Trading: ES Back to Profit for Week.

Click on chart for comments.

David AKA Tiger

Thursday Day Trading: ZB Trades

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David AKA Tiger

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Wednesday Day Trading: ES Trades

Today was a lesson in humility in my trading. I experienced an early breakeven WIN in ZB, then proceeded to lose 2 trades. After the market opened, I had my first non winning trade at 9:45AM. This trade was according to plan on a Spike Reversal and I was looking for it to fill the gap. This hit my stop.

My next trade was on a reversal on the 9:45AM bar and entered the trade at 10AM Eastern time. This trade ended up as a breakeven plus a tic trade for me. The next trade happened at 10:45AM Eastern after the release of the crude oil report. I was looking for the market to fall, but it decided to change directions and this one was again a non winning trade.

My trading is off today, so I decided to turn off my platform and take a breather for the rest of the day. I felt myself with the desire to press today, just like I would in CRAPS, when I used to play that game. This usually leads to me losing more money, so as hard as it was to stop trading. I did.

The definition of insanity is to do the same thing expecting different results. The market was not cooperating with my trading method today, so I am standing aside for the rest of the day now.

Good Trades to You and hope you had a better day than mine!

David AKA Tiger