Monday, December 5, 2011

Could this be a Coincidence? I THINK NOT!!

Hello Traders,

Sometimes the best laid plans are for naught … you can have the right trade setup, and the proper entry signal. You can be trading with the overall trend of the market. In other words, all GREEN lights are GREEN, and still find yourself at a loss on the trade.

There is nothing wrong with your trading strategy. What this means, is you are either wrong in the timing of the trade, or simply wrong about your trading decision. More times than not, you will find yourself on the wrong side of the trade, because your timing was off, than simply wrong about the direction of the overall trend.

The market has a way of doing whatever it wants to do. What we can do as traders is simply go with the overall odds, and keep us in the game. We never want to risk everything we have on any given trade.

As a small account trader, your number one job is always the same … it’s about SURVIVAL! Did I trade poorly today? Was I the GREATER FOOL? Why?

The market operates under the premise of the GREATER FOOL theory. Any financial instrument is only worth what a person is willing to pay for it, or lack thereof. As I think about my trading today, where I was able to trade 2 contracts, but lost on both trades to the tune of $1,604. What made me think for any part of the day that I was smarter than the market?

Terms from Richard Wyckoff … Jumping the CREEK and Coming Back to ICE! I NEED to be aware at all times as a day trader to determine the CREEK and where to determine the ICE! This is a trading concept that will not take any more of my money. I should have a tight stop in place when the market is breaking out to NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS.

I need to make sure and determine for my own eyes the market is making HIGHER HIGHS for a LONG position. On the contrary, I need to determine with my own eyes the market is making LOWER LOWS for a SHORT position.

If the market is in the middle, then I should have my stop a lot closer to the market. I had a lot of time to get out of the market today at the 102.17 level after it failed, and I should not have entered again as it was approaching the CREEK … in this case the CREEK was the Previous Day High … that could have become ICE if held … or simply a barrier to LOWER PRICES if it did not HOLD.

Today I was the GREATER FOOL! Never again will this happen in my trading!!

Good Trading,

David 'Tiger' Knight

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