Click on Chart for comments on the ES trading opportunities.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Thursday Day Trading: ZB Long Trades
Today being Thursday there was a very nice trade in the bond market or the ZB. When I was watching the bond market pre-open, what I noticed was the non move in relation to the stock indices. The stock indices were down considerably before the bond market open, and the bonds had not adjusted to this move yet.
So basically, my thinking was to find a way to go long, if the chart showed me that it wanted to go long in the bonds. My first entry was at 8:35AM Eastern time. This trade only made breakeven plus a tic, as I was concerned about the 1st bar high early and a retracement. This turned out to be a wise decision, as without my protective stop trade management, then it would have went to my stop loss.
The second opportunity to get long in the bonds happened at 8:50AM Eastern time. This trade worked out beautifully. I took most of my position off at 114^15, and the last of my position a little below the Average Daily Range line (ADR) at 114^25. The first move was 12 tics or $187.50 per contract traded, and the ADR move was 32 tics or $500 per contract traded. I like to trade in multiples of at least 2 contracts in the bonds so this was per every 2 contracts traded in the bonds $687.50 per trade.
This was the best trade of the week, and I will feature it in my trading demonstration for the week. I will record this and talk a little more about this trade for your education.
Good Trades,
David AKA Tiger
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Wednesday Day Trading: ES SR Trendfade Short
In my trading today, I did not trade until after the release of the FOMC RED Report at 2:15PM Eastern time. (Note this report was released 5 minutes early today.) My trade in the ES or emini S&P came at 2:30PM Eastern time, and reached target very quickly.
This is another exercise in patience and waiting until a direction has been established. I liked the trade off the bounce of the ADR (average daily volume.) This trade is what I considered a spike reversal trendfade opportunity.
The FED today left rates unchanged as was expected so the market even at the end of day showed no direction as this decision was expected. The opportunity to trade or in this case, day trade will come suddenly and quickly at times. By being prepared to enter a trade, and having a trading plan that accomodates sudden moves is the way to handle this situation. The key is to know exactly what and how you will approach your trade like today when the FOMC RED Report is released, that is if you want to trade off reports releases.
I like these trades as I prefer momentum trades ... that is a trade that will move quickly, hopefully in my direction.
Good Trades,
David AKA Tiger
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Tuesday Day Trading: ZB Long Entry
Click chart for comments ... beware of trading today and tomorrow with the FOMC meeting the next two days. I will personally not be trading until after the release of the FOMC statement at 2:15PM on Wednesday now. My own personal trading I have found these days to be very tough to find any clear trend. Others may have a valid system of trading into this report, but for me this gives me an excuse to take a little time off from trading.
Best to you and yours ... I traded the 3rd green bar today at 8:50AM Eastern time. This trade eventually went on to target. My stop was hit at breakeven plus a tic today.
Good Trades,
David AKA Tiger
P.S. I will not be trading now until after the RED REPORT release of the FOMC Statement at 2:15PM Eastern time tomorrow now.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Garfield on the Oil Crisis
Garfield on the Oil CrisisA lot of folks can't understand how we came to have an oil shortage here in our country. ~~~ Well, there's a very simple answer. ~~~
Nobody bothered to check the oil. ~~~
We just didn't know we were getting low. ~~~
The reason for that is purely geographical.~~~
Our OIL is located in :
~~~ ALASKA
~~~ California
~~~ Coastal Florida
~~~ Coastal Louisiana
~~~ Wyoming
~~~ Colorado
~~~ Kansas
~~~ Oklahoma
~~~ Pennsylvania and Texas
~~~
Our dipsticks are located in DC Any Questions?
NO?...Didn't think So.
Monday Day Trading: ZB Long Trade
Today being Monday, there was not much trading opportunities in the market. The one that did develop was in the bond market or ZB or the long bond, as some people refer to it. This trade came at 10:05AM Eastern time and went on to target.
This was a tougher trade to hold since it took 3 bars to make target. I brought my stop up to breakeven plus a tic on the second bar, and stayed in the trade barely. This trade fought it's way up to target.
What I liked about this trade was the following:
1. Rising Volume
2. Trend going up
3. Close above Friday's High
4. Plenty of room on the ADR. (average daily range)
5. Felt good (was a part of my trading plan.)
The above factors quickly played into my decision to make this trade, and it did end up in the winning column of today's trading. That's all for now.
Good Trades,
David AKA Tiger
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Best Trade of the Week Video in ES Market
This is the first time I have worked with the recording feature with Camstasia Studio. So your patience is appreciated as I get to understand the software, and get better with bringing the best of my trades to video format.
Thanks again for your patience and understanding, as I learn how to bring my trading into greater focus for your benefit.
Good Trades,
David AKA Tiger
Friday, June 20, 2008
Bonds Head Out Near Week's Best Levels
15:50 ET 10-Yr: +13/32..4.156%.. USD/JPY: 107.2670.. EUR/USD: 1.5621
[BRIEFING.COM]
Bonds Head Out Near Week's Best Levels : The bonds ran-up on the day, with the short end pulling the market along as stocks stumbled and oil barreled back better. The early bid came in on chatter over bond insurer troubles (and rate slashings) and held, with some mid-day pressure on position squaring, bouncing back nicely.
There was nothing on the calendar of note today but the week ahead has a run of potential tape-bombs, with FOMC, $30B shorter duration auctions and assorted data. The oil related meetings in the Mid East over the weekend may offer some headlines, but little of consequence is expected out of the gathering.
Traders have pulled out virtually all expectation of the Fed to pull the trigger on rates, but the market is geared up for toughened up inflation talk. The shorter maturities were able to get in about 23 basis point swings on the week, while the longer end lagged some.
The curve was back and forth all week, heading out steepened with the 2-10-yr yield spread at 128.5. The buck was embattled all day, suffering on rate expectations and got pushed out of the recent range on the euro, which was able to haul its way back through to 1.5650. The yen was able to get back to near 107.00 yen to the buck after a brief stint through 108.00 late yesterday.
Gold was bought most of the week on inflation concern, but went offered mid-session with spot now 901.42 (+2.95).
Crude held a bid on mid-east saber rattling and the sliding dollar, with the Aug contract now 135.15 (+2.55).
The week ahead will be fairly Fed-centric with the FOMC running Tues and Wed, and a high likelihood of assorted ex-Fedsters popping up to offer their rate opinions to the usual market talking heads.
[BRIEFING.COM]
Bonds Head Out Near Week's Best Levels : The bonds ran-up on the day, with the short end pulling the market along as stocks stumbled and oil barreled back better. The early bid came in on chatter over bond insurer troubles (and rate slashings) and held, with some mid-day pressure on position squaring, bouncing back nicely.
There was nothing on the calendar of note today but the week ahead has a run of potential tape-bombs, with FOMC, $30B shorter duration auctions and assorted data. The oil related meetings in the Mid East over the weekend may offer some headlines, but little of consequence is expected out of the gathering.
Traders have pulled out virtually all expectation of the Fed to pull the trigger on rates, but the market is geared up for toughened up inflation talk. The shorter maturities were able to get in about 23 basis point swings on the week, while the longer end lagged some.
The curve was back and forth all week, heading out steepened with the 2-10-yr yield spread at 128.5. The buck was embattled all day, suffering on rate expectations and got pushed out of the recent range on the euro, which was able to haul its way back through to 1.5650. The yen was able to get back to near 107.00 yen to the buck after a brief stint through 108.00 late yesterday.
Gold was bought most of the week on inflation concern, but went offered mid-session with spot now 901.42 (+2.95).
Crude held a bid on mid-east saber rattling and the sliding dollar, with the Aug contract now 135.15 (+2.55).
The week ahead will be fairly Fed-centric with the FOMC running Tues and Wed, and a high likelihood of assorted ex-Fedsters popping up to offer their rate opinions to the usual market talking heads.
Stock Market Concludes With A Heavy Loss Week
Dow -220.40 at 11842.69, Nasdaq -55.97 at 2406.09, S&P -24.90 at 1317.93
[BRIEFING.COM]
Friday was an options expiration date, making for heavy volume as traders entered the market in droves. However, the session’s tone was pessimistic as concerns surrounding financial and bank stocks bled into other sectors.
Within the financial sector (-2.5%), bond insurers MBIA (MBI 5.59, -0.86) and Ambac (ABK 2.05, +0.02) had their ratings cut by Moody's and were given a negative outlook. Fellow ratings agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor’s already trimmed their ratings on bond insurers.
Matters in the financial sector were made worse as Merrill Lynch reduced its earnings estimates for a host of banks on concerns of credit risk, capital raises, and possible dividend cuts.
Large-cap tech also encountered stiff selling pressure during the session, offsetting yesterday’s advance. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%, hurt by easily recognizable Apple (AAPL 175.27, -5.63), Microsoft (MSFT 28.23, -0.70), and Google (GOOG 546.43, -13.77).
In terms of corporate headlines, Boeing (BA 75.83, -1.12) announced it is closer to delivering its highly anticipated 787 Dreamliner after completing a key task. Shares of BA still traded lower amid the day’s raft of selling.
Ford Motor Company (F 5.88, -0.44) stated it will further cut truck production. The company is shifting focus to match consumers’ appetite for more fuel efficient automobiles amid high fuel costs. Notably, Ford had its outlook lowered by Moody’s to negative from stable, reflecting the challenging environment faced by domestic auto manufacturers. General Motors (GM 13.79, -1.00) was also put on CreditWatch with negative implications. The automobile manufacturers industry finished the session 7.6% lower.
Amid speculation whether Belgian brewer InBev will succeed in its effort to acquire Anheuser-Busch (BUD 60.67, -0.38), the St. Louis-based brewer announced it acquired the remaining 50% of Crown Beers India Ltd. from its partner, Crown International. Additionally, Carlos Fernandez, chairman and CEO of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo, resigned from Anheuser-Busch’s board. Anheuser-Busch has a stake in Grupo Modelo and previously approached the company in regard to expanding its relationship.
Stocks closed the session off their lows, but with significant losses. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.1%. The stock market has lost 5.9% month-to-date, and is down 10.3% year-to-date.
Nasdaq 100 -2.7%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -1.8%. ..Russell 2000 -1.6%.
[BRIEFING.COM]
Friday was an options expiration date, making for heavy volume as traders entered the market in droves. However, the session’s tone was pessimistic as concerns surrounding financial and bank stocks bled into other sectors.
Within the financial sector (-2.5%), bond insurers MBIA (MBI 5.59, -0.86) and Ambac (ABK 2.05, +0.02) had their ratings cut by Moody's and were given a negative outlook. Fellow ratings agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor’s already trimmed their ratings on bond insurers.
Matters in the financial sector were made worse as Merrill Lynch reduced its earnings estimates for a host of banks on concerns of credit risk, capital raises, and possible dividend cuts.
Large-cap tech also encountered stiff selling pressure during the session, offsetting yesterday’s advance. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%, hurt by easily recognizable Apple (AAPL 175.27, -5.63), Microsoft (MSFT 28.23, -0.70), and Google (GOOG 546.43, -13.77).
In terms of corporate headlines, Boeing (BA 75.83, -1.12) announced it is closer to delivering its highly anticipated 787 Dreamliner after completing a key task. Shares of BA still traded lower amid the day’s raft of selling.
Ford Motor Company (F 5.88, -0.44) stated it will further cut truck production. The company is shifting focus to match consumers’ appetite for more fuel efficient automobiles amid high fuel costs. Notably, Ford had its outlook lowered by Moody’s to negative from stable, reflecting the challenging environment faced by domestic auto manufacturers. General Motors (GM 13.79, -1.00) was also put on CreditWatch with negative implications. The automobile manufacturers industry finished the session 7.6% lower.
Amid speculation whether Belgian brewer InBev will succeed in its effort to acquire Anheuser-Busch (BUD 60.67, -0.38), the St. Louis-based brewer announced it acquired the remaining 50% of Crown Beers India Ltd. from its partner, Crown International. Additionally, Carlos Fernandez, chairman and CEO of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo, resigned from Anheuser-Busch’s board. Anheuser-Busch has a stake in Grupo Modelo and previously approached the company in regard to expanding its relationship.
Stocks closed the session off their lows, but with significant losses. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 3.1%. The stock market has lost 5.9% month-to-date, and is down 10.3% year-to-date.
Nasdaq 100 -2.7%. ..S&P Midcap 400 -1.8%. ..Russell 2000 -1.6%.
Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says
By Bei Hu
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may rise to $5,000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $277 billion of assets globally.
``You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $1,000 an ounce, but prices rise to $5,000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,'' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $10 billion of commodity assets.
Investors are turning to gold for protection as two-thirds of the world's population cope with inflation rates that are climbing to more than 10 percent, Wyke said. Cash and inflation- linked bonds are poor substitutes as low interest rates, coupled with surging inflation, erode the real value of assets, he said.
Bullion for immediate delivery was down 0.2 percent at $892.48 an ounce at 9:57 a.m. in Singapore, after gaining 3 percent in the past four days. Wyke didn't give a time frame for his gold prediction.
Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found.
New Fund
Wyke was speaking at a press conference in Hong Kong today to market the Schroder Alternative Solutions Gold and Metals Fund, the first commodity fund authorized for sale to individuals in the city that invests primarily in derivatives, including futures, warrants, swaps and options. Robert Howell and Paula Bujia will manage the fund.
Gold may account for about 40 percent of the fund's assets, based on a ``model'' fund used to simulate returns, said Wyke. The fund would also buy securities linked to metals including aluminum, copper, iron ore, zinc and uranium.
The limited amount of gold available, relative to the size of the global capital markets, means a small shift in investments may lead to significant price changes for the metal, Wyke said. Total gold above ground is worth about $4.8 trillion, compared with global stock and bond markets worth $135.2 trillion.
UBS AG, Hang Seng Bank Ltd., KBC Groep NV and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are among firms that manage commodity funds in the city, according to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Bank of East Asia Ltd. in February started a fund that buys shares of companies that produce materials and energy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at bhu5@bloomberg.net Last Updated: June 19, 2008 04:44 EDT
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may rise to $5,000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $277 billion of assets globally.
``You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $1,000 an ounce, but prices rise to $5,000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,'' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $10 billion of commodity assets.
Investors are turning to gold for protection as two-thirds of the world's population cope with inflation rates that are climbing to more than 10 percent, Wyke said. Cash and inflation- linked bonds are poor substitutes as low interest rates, coupled with surging inflation, erode the real value of assets, he said.
Bullion for immediate delivery was down 0.2 percent at $892.48 an ounce at 9:57 a.m. in Singapore, after gaining 3 percent in the past four days. Wyke didn't give a time frame for his gold prediction.
Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found.
New Fund
Wyke was speaking at a press conference in Hong Kong today to market the Schroder Alternative Solutions Gold and Metals Fund, the first commodity fund authorized for sale to individuals in the city that invests primarily in derivatives, including futures, warrants, swaps and options. Robert Howell and Paula Bujia will manage the fund.
Gold may account for about 40 percent of the fund's assets, based on a ``model'' fund used to simulate returns, said Wyke. The fund would also buy securities linked to metals including aluminum, copper, iron ore, zinc and uranium.
The limited amount of gold available, relative to the size of the global capital markets, means a small shift in investments may lead to significant price changes for the metal, Wyke said. Total gold above ground is worth about $4.8 trillion, compared with global stock and bond markets worth $135.2 trillion.
UBS AG, Hang Seng Bank Ltd., KBC Groep NV and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are among firms that manage commodity funds in the city, according to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Bank of East Asia Ltd. in February started a fund that buys shares of companies that produce materials and energy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at bhu5@bloomberg.net Last Updated: June 19, 2008 04:44 EDT
Friday Day Trading: ZB Bonus Trade
Today in the bond market, we experienced what is called a GAP OPEN. There is two ways to trade a gap. One is to take a trade when the gap is trying to be closed. The other is to take a trade with the intention of the gap not closing, or a continuation gap.
The trade today came at 8:35AM Eastern time, and proceeded without any difficulty reaching target for another profitable trade for the week.
On a side note, I am working on several projects now. One will be available, in the near future, you will find it on the right side of the blog with the Day Trader Box. I will keep you updated on the progress of this program.
Also, I have placed my recommended booklist on this website blog. It is an accumlation of over 25 years of reading. These are books that I recommend and they vary from: trading, investment, fiction, biography, and self-help. You will also find a current news category on the right side. I hope you like the new additions to my blog.
Lastly, if you scroll to the bottom of the page, then you will find my disclaimer to the website, and my trading method. This is pretty standard stuff, but I wanted to cover my bases. I hope that you have a very enjoyable weekend. My plan as time goes on is to make this website blog a one of a kind, unique and enjoyable experience for all that take the time to visit.
Be on the lookout for more changes coming soon!
Good Trades,
David AKA Tiger
P.S. I added a "Calvin and Hobbes" picture. As I was growing up, I always enjoyed the cartoon and it is a reminder of my nickname, "TIGER."
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Futures: The Phantom's Gift
Futures: The Phantom's Gift - by Art SimpsonIf you haven't yet read this collection of work, then I would highly recommend placing this on your to do list, in the near future.
David AKA Tiger
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